The Wrong Newsletter: The Favorite Isn't the Winner
Three predictions this week were nearly unanimous, and all three were wrong. A look at what nominations, sentiment, and track records can't tell you.
The Predict Six Blog
The Weekly Recap is the table-stakes roundup. The Wrong Newsletter is Phil's reflection on the misses worth dwelling on.
The Wrong Newsletter: Everybody Watched the Wrong Clock
This week's biggest misses all had one thing in common: we were reading the story, not the clock — a court's actual schedule, a cartel's actual constraints, a body's actual jet lag.
The Wrong Newsletter: Yesterday's Weather
Tariffs didn't pause, TCU didn't hold, and the August jobs report blew past every model in the room — ours and Wall Street's. A week of betting on the last data point instead of the current one.
The Wrong Newsletter: Nothing's Final Until It's Final
This week we were sure about a press secretary, a tariff pause, and a golf bubble. All three came apart in the last mile.
The Wrong Newsletter: Everything Takes Longer Than It Looks
This week we bet on the fast version of things — a swing, a box office curve, a court ruling — and the slow version won every time.
The Wrong Newsletter: The Loudest Story in the Room
Three of this week's biggest misses weren't bad luck — we just kept believing the loud version of the story over the quiet one.
The Wrong Newsletter: Reversal Season
An ace pitcher, a trillion-dollar throne, and a gas pump all did the opposite of what we expected this week — three misses about mistaking a moment for a trend.
The Wrong Newsletter: The Sure Thing Problem
A nine-pitch immaculate inning nobody saw coming, a bill everyone assumed would die quietly instead died loudly, and Apple's earnings call buried the real news under the goodbye speech.
The Wrong Newsletter: We Wrote The Wrong Ending
91% of you had Messi scoring in the final. 73% had housing coming in soft. Neither showed up — and both misses trace back to the same habit: betting on the story instead of the game.
The Wrong Newsletter: Momentum Lies
Three misses this week, one shared root: a Golden Boot won without a goal, a ratings surge nobody predicted, and a dominant French side shut out cold.
The Wrong Newsletter: The Sure Thing Wasn't
This week three heavy favorites went down — a sequel that couldn't clear its budget, a top seed bounced from Wimbledon, and a home crowd's hope mistaken for a prediction.
The Wrong Newsletter: In Plain Sight
Three misses this week, and every answer was sitting in plain sight — a scrappy Cape Verde, a record-high Dow, a wedding stage rising at Madison Square Garden. We just liked the story better.
The Wrong Newsletter: Three Faults
87% of us said there'd be no earthquake. The earth disagreed. A week of high-confidence misses — from Mendocino to the World Cup pitch to Tehran.
The Wrong Newsletter: The Sure Things
From baseball's labor silence to soccer's first major shock of the tournament, this week's biggest misses had one thing in common: we thought we knew.
The Wrong Newsletter: Three Stories the Crowd Got Backwards
A Senate revolt that passed anyway. A sick player who didn't act like one. Two brands the market had written off. We missed them all — and here's why.
The Wrong Newsletter: Sure Things and Soft Clay
Five American women made it to the French Open's third round. We were 93% sure two would survive the fourth. A week that had a lot to say about anchors — and what happens when the ground shifts.
The Wrong Newsletter: Chasing the Wrong Wind
100% wrong on the economy. 94% wrong on the subway series. 85% wrong on Gemini 4. This week was a masterclass in confident error.
The Wrong Newsletter: Filed Under Wrong
Three times this week the crowd was more than 80% confident. Three times we were wrong — and the signals pointing the other way were there the whole time.
The Wrong Newsletter: Sure Things
Three questions this week where 80%+ of us were confident. We were wrong about all three.