The Wrong Newsletter: Momentum Lies
Three misses this week, one shared root: a Golden Boot won without a goal, a ratings surge nobody predicted, and a dominant French side shut out cold.
The Predict Six Blog
The Weekly Recap is the table-stakes roundup. The Wrong Newsletter is Phil's reflection on the misses worth dwelling on.
The Wrong Newsletter: The Sure Thing Wasn't
This week three heavy favorites went down — a sequel that couldn't clear its budget, a top seed bounced from Wimbledon, and a home crowd's hope mistaken for a prediction.
The Wrong Newsletter: In Plain Sight
Three misses this week, and every answer was sitting in plain sight — a scrappy Cape Verde, a record-high Dow, a wedding stage rising at Madison Square Garden. We just liked the story better.
The Wrong Newsletter: Three Faults
87% of us said there'd be no earthquake. The earth disagreed. A week of high-confidence misses — from Mendocino to the World Cup pitch to Tehran.
The Wrong Newsletter: The Sure Things
From baseball's labor silence to soccer's first major shock of the tournament, this week's biggest misses had one thing in common: we thought we knew.
The Wrong Newsletter: Three Stories the Crowd Got Backwards
A Senate revolt that passed anyway. A sick player who didn't act like one. Two brands the market had written off. We missed them all — and here's why.
The Wrong Newsletter: Sure Things and Soft Clay
Five American women made it to the French Open's third round. We were 93% sure two would survive the fourth. A week that had a lot to say about anchors — and what happens when the ground shifts.
The Wrong Newsletter: Chasing the Wrong Wind
100% wrong on the economy. 94% wrong on the subway series. 85% wrong on Gemini 4. This week was a masterclass in confident error.
The Wrong Newsletter: Filed Under Wrong
Three times this week the crowd was more than 80% confident. Three times we were wrong — and the signals pointing the other way were there the whole time.
The Wrong Newsletter: Sure Things
Three questions this week where 80%+ of us were confident. We were wrong about all three.