The Wrong Newsletter: Sure Things and Soft Clay

Five American women were through to the third round at Roland Garros. 93% of us thought at least two would make it through the fourth. None did.

Gauff — the defending champion — fell to unseeded Anastasia Potapova in three sets. Anisimova went out the same afternoon to Diane Parry. By the end of the week, Madison Keys was the last American standing, and she didn't survive Round 4 either.

I get why we thought what we thought. Five through to Round 3 reads like depth, like momentum, like simple math. But two through Round 4 requires four individual victories against opponents who are also peaking — on clay, at Roland Garros, where the surface has a way of quietly rewriting narratives. We saw the number and assumed the direction. The court had different plans.

Costco closed Friday under $995. 88% thought it would hold above $1,000 after earnings.

The stock had already slid 8% off a $1,096 peak before the report even landed — the market was whispering. But the question dropped when COST was at $1,028, and $1,028 felt like a floor. It wasn't. A five-cent EPS miss on a stock trading at 50x earnings doesn't get forgiven — not at that altitude. We anchored to where it was sitting, not to where the pressure was pointing.

The Byron Nelson went the other way, which is almost funnier.

Si Woo Kim was -18 through two rounds — an already-absurd number. 88% said no when asked if 30-under-par would win. Wyndham Clark shot 60 on Sunday and won at exactly 30-under.

The course was playing soft all week, loudly. -18 after two rounds is not a subtle signal. And still, most of us looked at "30 or more under par" and flinched — because 30-under isn't what tournaments usually finish at. We let the anchor do the work instead of reading what was right in front of us. Clark didn't sneak up on anyone. The conditions told us the whole time.

Three misses, all near 90%, all with visible signals we walked past. The crowd feels solid right up until it doesn't.

Next week's questions are live. Go carefully.

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