Methodology

The Predict Six Index is published every Wednesday at 9 AM ET. Each week's Index covers the prior Sunday 12:00 AM ET → Saturday 11:59 PM ET window, giving a 4-day buffer for slow-resolving questions to land before they're scored.

What counts toward the headline number

Every Predict Six question that resolved during the Sun-Sat window. We publish 6 yes/no questions every day across six categories — Sports, Markets, Politics, Culture, Technology, and World — so a typical week's Index covers around 42 questions.

What's excluded

Voided questions only. A question is voided when the underlying event becomes unanswerable (e.g., a sports event is cancelled, a vote is postponed indefinitely). Voided questions have no resolved outcome to score against, so they're omitted from both the headline number and per-category breakdowns.

How "correct" is defined

For each resolved question, we compare the community majority (more than 50% of voters agreed on yes or no) against the actual outcome. If the majority matched the outcome, that question counts toward the headline as "correct." If not, it counts as a miss. We use raw majority — not weighted by individual user confidence — because the methodology has to be defensible and easily explained.

Per-category breakdowns

Same math, restricted to questions in that category. A category with 0 resolutions in the week is omitted (not zeroed out — that would be misleading).

Sample size and limitations

Predict Six users self-select. The Index is not a probability sample of the general population. Treat it as crowd performance among users who chose to answer. The "uniqueVoterCount" reported on each week's page is the sum of all per-question vote counts that week — a single user voting on multiple questions is counted once per question.

On weeks with fewer than 10 resolved questions, the headline is statistically noisy and we'll soft-pedal the framing on the X post. The webpage shows the number as-is without a small-sample disclaimer; readers should note the count.

Update cadence

Wednesdays at 9 AM ET, automatically. The X thread and the public webpage update simultaneously. Each week's page is permalinked at /the-index/week/{Sunday-date}/ and remains stable forever.

Methodology changes

Once the Index is cited externally, methodology changes create a credibility shock. We commit to: (a) any methodology change is announced as a footnote on the next week's Index post and added to a public changelog at the bottom of this page; (b) historical weeks are not retroactively recomputed under new methodology — they remain as published.

Contact

Press, citations, and corrections: info@predictsixapp.com