The 10-year Treasury touched 5% on Sept 14, a level unseen since 2023. Will it close above 5% by Sept 18?

The 10-year Treasury yield closed above 5% by September 18, confirming the resolution. The yield first touched 5.04% on September 14, its highest level since 2007, as investors priced in persistent inflation and a rising term premium ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 16 meeting. The Fed raised its policy rate that day, and new Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks emphasizing continued inflation risk pushed the 10-year back above 5%, settling near 5.02% in the immediate aftermath of the decision. Elevated oil prices tied to the escalating Yemen and Red Sea conflict, along with doubts about the Fed's ability to tame inflation, compounded the move and kept long-term borrowing costs elevated through the week. The yield fluctuated between roughly 4.94% and 5.04% over the following days before finishing the window above the 5% threshold, per Federal Reserve H.15 data. This marked the first sustained close above 5% for the benchmark note since 2007, a level not touched even at the peak of the 2023 rate-hike cycle. The community majority, 77% yes, correctly anticipated the outcome, reflecting a broad market consensus that a hawkish Fed hike combined with persistent inflation concerns would keep yields elevated rather than retreat.