Will Michigan's Democratic Senate primary be decided by fewer than 10 points on Aug 4?
100% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 2 predictions cast.
Abdul El-Sayed, a former Michigan health official, defeated U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the state's Aug. 4, 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate by roughly one percentage point. The Associated Press called the race the next morning with 99% of votes counted, showing El-Sayed with 740,950 votes (48.5%) to Stevens' 726,057 (47.5%). Stevens conceded by phone once the outcome became clear, according to the El-Sayed campaign.
The narrow finish capped a volatile race: Mallory McMorrow's July withdrawal consolidated progressive support behind El-Sayed, while more than $70 million in outside spending, including from pro-Israel PACs opposing him, poured into the contest in its final weeks. El-Sayed had led some late polls by wider margins, but the actual result came down to roughly 15,000 votes out of nearly 1.5 million cast.
El-Sayed advances to face Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in November for the open seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, in one of the cycle's marquee Senate contests.
The sub-10-point margin confirms the market's resolution. The community's unanimous "yes" vote (100%, on two votes) matched the actual outcome.