Will progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed beat the establishment D candidate in Mich Senate primary on 8/4?
60% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 30 predictions cast.
Progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed defeated establishment-aligned Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary, with the race called in his favor on Aug. 5, 2026, a day after polls closed. El-Sayed led by roughly one percentage point with about 99% of ballots counted when Stevens conceded and congratulated him. He overcame an outside-spending disadvantage estimated near $65 million directed against him and was backed by progressive figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. El-Sayed, a physician and former Michigan health director who previously ran for governor, will face Republican Mike Rogers in November's general election for the seat. The result was read nationally as a notable win for the Democratic Party's progressive wing in a Midwestern battleground state, in a primary that also included Rep. Mallory McMorrow. Community forecasters leaned correctly toward this outcome, with 60% predicting an El-Sayed win, matching the actual result, in a market of 30 recorded votes.