Will 50+ boats pass thru Hormuz in a single day before July 1? Was 100-140/day before the war!
55% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 42 predictions cast.
After months of near-total disruption, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached a post-war daily peak in late June 2026 following the June 17 ceasefire memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. The U.S. lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil as part of that agreement accelerated the recovery; approximately 73 vessels transited the strait in a single day around June 25, 2026 — the highest daily count since hostilities began in late February. That figure represented roughly 57 percent of the pre-war baseline of 110 to 160 ships per day, easily surpassing the 50-vessel threshold the question required. Traffic slowed again on June 27 after U.S. aircraft struck Iranian positions in response to an IRGC drone attack on the Singapore-flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely, introducing fresh uncertainty about the strait's recovery trajectory. The 50-vessel bar had, however, already been cleared before those new strikes. The community's 55-percent "yes" call proved correct.