Will at least 1 of the 7 targeted Indiana R's lose their primary on Tues, May 5? 1st big midterm test!
94% of users predicted YES — the community got this one right. 34 predictions cast.
Trump-backed challengers swept Tuesday's Indiana Republican primaries on May 5, 2026, defeating at least five of the seven incumbent state senators targeted for supporting a redistricting plan that blocked congressional map changes favorable to Republicans. NBC News reported five incumbents were defeated outright, with another race too close to call. The ouster campaign stemmed from a December 2025 Indiana Senate vote in which Republican members rejected Trump's push to redraw the state's congressional boundaries. Trump had vowed to primary any Republican who voted against the redistricting effort. Approximately $9 million was spent backing the challengers, with Trump's endorsements carrying significant weight among primary voters. U.S. Sen. Jim Banks declared the results a referendum on Trump's popularity among Indiana Republicans. The Predict Six community almost unanimously anticipated at least one upset—94% said yes—and they were right by a wide margin.