Will Friday’s US Leading Economic Indicators report show another negative reading?
100% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 37 predictions cast.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the United States edged up 0.1 percent in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016 = 100), snapping a string of monthly declines and resolving the question no. The report was released on Friday, May 22. The modest gain was driven primarily by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits for buildings with two or more units.
The Conference Board nonetheless characterized the broader economic outlook as "fragile." The index declined 0.7 percent over the six months between October 2025 and April 2026, a slower rate of deterioration than the 1.0 percent contraction in the prior six-month period, but still negative on a half-year basis. The organization projected U.S. GDP growth of 1.7 percent for 2026, a slight upward revision from its prior forecast.
Management warned that rising energy costs and weak hiring could erode consumer purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income households. The April reading interrupted a run of negative months without signaling broad acceleration. Every participant who made a prediction expected a negative monthly reading — the unanimous consensus proved incorrect, though the economic picture the index describes remains subdued.