Iran and Oman put mine clearing in the Strait of Hormuz at 30 to 60 days. Will they say the work has started before Sept 11?
64% of users predicted YES — the community missed this one. 22 predictions cast.
Iran and Oman announced an interim framework in late August 2026 for a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and agreed to pursue a joint mine-clearing project, with officials framing a full resolution as 30 to 60 days out. By September 11, 2026, however, neither side had announced that mine-clearing work had actually begun; the Oman-hosted talks had not produced a signed agreement.
Instead of progressing, the diplomatic track was overtaken by renewed fighting. On September 8, U.S. forces destroyed five more Iranian oil tankers, and Iran retaliated the next day with a missile strike on a U.S.-linked base in Jordan and attacks on shipping near Hormuz. Houthi forces also seized Yemen's Red Sea coastline around the same time, widening the conflict rather than narrowing it.
With the war escalating on multiple fronts, the mine-clearing framework Iran and Oman had floated in August did not advance to an announced start date.
The prediction-market community had put 64% odds on the work starting by September 11, and the majority view was wrong: no start was announced.