September 17, 2026

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released September 17, 2026, put the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.95%, up from 6.76% the prior week and above the 6.85% threshold in the question. It was the fourth consecutive weekly increase in the survey. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also rose, averaging 6.26%, up from 6.09% a week earlier. The increase followed the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point, its first hike in three years, after policymakers said inflation remained too high to justify holding steady. Long-term mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the Fed's short-term rate directly, and yields rose as bond markets priced in a longer stretch of restrictive policy following the hike and hawkish signals from Fed officials about further increases. Predict Six's community leaned toward "no" ahead of the survey, with only 35 percent of voters expecting the rate to clear 6.85%. The actual reading of 6.95% cleared that mark by 10 basis points, meaning the community's majority view did not match the outcome.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,551.81 on September 16, 2026, down about 0.45% for the day and below its September 11 close of 7,657. The decline came after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first rate hike in three years, in a unanimous vote. Stocks traded higher earlier in the session as investors awaited the announcement, but selling accelerated once Fed Chair Warsh told reporters that summer inflation readings did not show underlying trends had meaningfully improved. New quarterly projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers expecting at least one more quarter-point hike before year-end, reinforcing expectations of continued tightening. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 600 points intraday as Treasury yields and oil prices rose alongside the rate decision. Inflation had run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years heading into the meeting, giving the central bank cover to act despite growth concerns. Predict Six's community was evenly split heading into the decision, with 50 percent of voters expecting a higher close, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how markets would react to a widely telegraphed but still consequential hike. The index's same-day drop resolved the question to the downside.