May 29, 2026

Costco Wholesale shares fell 4.57 percent to close at $949.76 on May 29, 2026 — below the $1,000 threshold and the $1,028 level at the time the question was set — after the company reported fiscal third-quarter results that came in marginally below some earnings expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $4.93, short of the $4.98 consensus estimate, even as net sales rose 11.6 percent to $69.2 billion and total revenues of $70.5 billion beat top-line forecasts.

The earnings shortfall was driven by margin compression: Costco's gross margin contracted from 11.25 percent a year earlier to 11.04 percent, with the company citing reduced margins on fresh food items — including beef and eggs — and higher transportation costs. Comparable sales grew 9.8 percent and digital sales increased more than 21 percent, indicating strong underlying demand.

Costco entered the session near all-time highs and carried a premium valuation that left limited room for any earnings shortfall. The combination of a thin EPS miss against the most demanding consensus estimates, visible gross margin contraction, and the stock's elevated starting price was sufficient to trigger a selloff below the psychologically significant $1,000 level.

The 88 percent of the community that expected the stock to hold above $1,000 got this outcome wrong.

Dell Technologies shares surged approximately 33 percent on May 29, 2026 after the company reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings that dramatically exceeded analyst expectations. Revenue rose 88 percent year over year to $43.8 billion — roughly $9 billion above the consensus estimate — while adjusted earnings per share reached $4.86 against a forecast of $2.93. AI-optimized server revenue was the headline figure: it jumped 757 percent year over year to $16.1 billion, reflecting explosive enterprise demand for AI data center infrastructure.

Dell also raised its full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to a range of $165 billion to $169 billion, with $60 billion forecast to come from AI server sales — figures that substantially reset market expectations for the company's AI infrastructure business.

The results reinforced Dell's position as a primary infrastructure beneficiary of the AI build-out cycle. The stock had already more than doubled year to date before the earnings release, and shares moved further into record territory on May 29. The scale of the revenue beat — driven by direct enterprise relationships with major cloud and large-cap technology customers — reflected the broader surge in capital spending on AI systems across the industry.

The 74 percent of the community that predicted a post-earnings gain was correct.

No commercial oil tanker completed a transit through the Strait of Hormuz under Royal Navy escort as of the May 29, 2026 resolution deadline. While the United Kingdom had pre-positioned HMS Dragon, a Type-45 air-defense destroyer, to the Middle East in early May, the planned multinational escort operation was explicitly conditioned on the establishment of a sustained ceasefire or peace deal — a threshold that had not formally been met by the resolution date.

The UK and France jointly announced a "Hormuz Coalition" framework involving more than 40 participating nations that would provide escort, demining, and air-policing capabilities once conditions permitted. A multinational planning conference was convened in mid-May to coordinate national contributions, but the coalition had not launched active escort operations by the end of the month.

The Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted to commercial shipping since early 2026 following military escalation in the region. Ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations generated optimism about eventual reopening, but British government statements throughout May were consistent: active escort operations would not begin until diplomatic conditions were in place.

The 59 percent of the community that predicted no completed escort by the deadline called this correctly.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at approximately 4.45 percent on Friday, May 29, 2026 — below the 4.5 percent threshold and down from the 4.56 percent level at the time the question was set. The move represented the note's lowest close in more than two weeks.

Two simultaneous developments drove the rally in Treasuries. Reports emerged Friday that the United States and Iran had agreed in principle to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and open nuclear negotiations, raising the prospect of eventually reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The news pushed oil prices lower, directly easing near-term inflation expectations.

Separately, the BEA released April PCE price index data — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — that came in softer than some market projections. Core PCE rose 3.3 percent year over year, providing further relief to rate-sensitive fixed-income investors. The two factors together were enough to push yields through the 4.5 percent level before the close.

The community assigned only a 30 percent probability to this outcome, making the 10-year yield close one of the more significant market surprises of the week. Respondents appeared to underestimate the bond market's sensitivity to Middle East ceasefire developments.

The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-91 on May 28, 2026 at home in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals, preserving their season and forcing a decisive seventh game. Victor Wembanyama led San Antonio with 28 points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks in 28 minutes of play, while Stephon Castle produced 17 points and nine assists and Dylan Harper added 17 points off the bench.

San Antonio controlled the contest wire-to-wire, using a dominant 32-13 third quarter to put the game out of reach. Reigning two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting, his least productive offensive outing of the series.

The result validated adjustments the Spurs made after a difficult stretch in which they dropped three of four games in the series. Head coach Gregg Popovich had identified turnover reduction as a priority, and San Antonio addressed that problem directly in Game 6. The win sets up a decisive Game 7 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder entered as heavy home favorites.

The 69 percent of the community that predicted a Spurs home win called this correctly.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on May 29, 2026 that personal income decreased less than $0.1 billion in April — essentially flat but technically negative — missing the 0.4 percent monthly gain that forecasters had projected. Disposable personal income fell $19.9 billion (0.1 percent), while personal consumption expenditures rose $111.1 billion (0.5 percent).

The BEA attributed the income decline primarily to a drop in farm proprietors' income, which fell as payments from the federal Farmer Bridge Assistance Program decreased after the program closed application submissions in mid-April. Compensation of employees provided a partial offset, preventing a steeper decline.

The divergence between spending and income pushed the personal saving rate to 2.6 percent, indicating households continued drawing down savings to maintain consumption levels in April. The PCE price index rose 3.8 percent year over year, with the core measure — excluding food and energy — up 3.3 percent, coming in slightly softer than recent readings and somewhat below some forecasts.

The April income result is broadly viewed as a temporary, policy-driven disruption tied to the expiration of specific government support payments rather than a structural shift in household finances.

The community forecast a rise by a 70-30 margin, getting this outcome wrong.

The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Friday, May 29, 2026, with the index finishing at approximately 7,584 — roughly 0.5 percent above the prior session and ahead of its previous record close. The session was anchored by a massive surge in Dell Technologies, which rose more than 30 percent after reporting fiscal first-quarter results that far exceeded analyst expectations on AI server demand.

Macro tailwinds reinforced the equity rally. Reports circulated on Friday that the United States and Iran had agreed in principle to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, reducing near-term oil-supply risk and pushing energy prices lower. The BEA's April PCE price index data, released the same morning, came in softer than some forecasts, easing concerns that the recent energy shock would persist as an inflation driver.

Micron Technology had joined the $1 trillion market capitalization club days earlier, reflecting the AI infrastructure theme that has underpinned much of the market's 2026 advance. The May 29 close extended a series of record closings driven by a combination of AI spending, moderating inflation data, and geopolitical de-escalation.

The community was split exactly 50-50 on this outcome.

U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema of the Eastern District of Virginia issued a temporary restraining order on May 29, 2026 blocking the Trump administration's $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" settlement fund. The order bars the Justice Department from transferring money into the fund, considering claims, or making any payments until a June 12 hearing at which the court will weigh whether to extend the block.

The fund was established through a DOJ settlement of a lawsuit filed by Donald Trump in his personal capacity against the Internal Revenue Service, designating it as compensation for individuals who claimed the federal government had been weaponized against them. Judge Brinkema said the temporary pause was necessary to prevent irreversible disbursements before legal arguments from both sides could be fully briefed.

A group of former federal judges had separately challenged the program in court, describing it in filings as "unprecedentedly fraudulent." Critics also argued the fund represented an unconstitutional use of taxpayer money. The June 12 hearing is expected to determine whether the fund can operate in any form.

The community narrowly called this outcome correctly, at 53 percent.

The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 118-91 in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals on May 28, 2026, extending the series to a deciding seventh game. Victor Wembanyama scored 28 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in 28 minutes, while Stephon Castle added 17 points with nine assists and Dylan Harper contributed 17 points off the bench.

San Antonio took control with a 32-13 third quarter that erased any realistic chance of a Thunder comeback. Reigning two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was limited to 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting, well below his playoff averages.

The series, which the Thunder had led 3-2 entering Game 6, now heads to a Game 7 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City. The Thunder went 6-1 at home during the 2026 playoffs, making them clear home-court favorites. The winner advances to the NBA Finals to face the New York Knicks, who swept the Cleveland Cavaliers earlier in the week.

The community correctly called this outcome, with 69 percent predicting the series would require seven games.